Poll Inflation likely quickened to 3.7%

Inflation Likely Quickened to 3.7% A Priority for Economists in 2026

As we navigate the complexities of economic forecasting, it's essential to 
prioritize accuracy and precision. In this blog post, we'll delve into the 
latest data on inflation, exploring why many economists believe it may have
have quickened to 3.7% in March.

The Numbers A Snapshot of Inflation

According to a Manila Times poll, the median forecast for March inflation w
was 3.7%, significantly higher than the 2.4% recorded in February. This sur
surge is largely attributed to unfavorable base effects and a sharp increas
increase in fuel prices, driven by the Middle East conflict.

Fuel Pressures A Key Factor

The ongoing conflict has led to higher petroleum and electricity costs, whi
which are expected to continue exerting upward pressure on inflation. Moody
Moody's Analytics economist Sarah Tan predicts that food prices will also s
strengthen, contributing to an average inflation rate of around 3.1% this y
year.

Economist Insights A Closer Look

Several economists have weighed in on the likely acceleration of inflation.
inflation. Chinabank chief economist Domini Velasquez expects inflation to 
hit 3.5%, driven by faster price increases in non-food items and higher ele
electricity charges. Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Arogo and Riz
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort also antici
anticipate an increase of around 3.7%.

A Breach of the Target?

Some economists believe that inflation has already breached the Bangko Sent
Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) target range of 2.0-4.0%. Union Bank of the Phi
Philippines chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion predicts an inflation rate
rate of 4.2% for March, driven by unfavorable base effects and higher food 
prices.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The persistence of supply-side pressures raises concerns about second-round
second-round effects, particularly through higher transport fares, electric
electricity costs, and wage-related adjustments. This may support a more ca
cautious approach to monetary policy, with the BSP focusing on anchoring in
inflation expectations.

Conclusion A Verdant Approach to Inflation

As we navigate the complexities of economic forecasting, it's essential to 
prioritize accuracy and precision. By weaving together insights from variou
various economists, we can gain a deeper understanding of the drivers behin
behind inflation. With the median forecast at 3.7%, it's clear that this me
metric will require close monitoring in the coming months.

Key Takeaways

Inflation is likely quickened to 3.7% in March, driven by fuel pressures 
and unfavorable base effects.
Economists predict a continued upward trend in inflation, with some antic
anticipating a breach of the BSP's target range.
* Supply-side pressures raise concerns about second-round effects, particul
particularly through higher transport fares, electricity costs, and wage-re
wage-related adjustments.

By staying ahead of the curve and integrating insights from various economi
economists, we can better navigate the complexities of inflation and make i
informed decisions in our pursuit of verdant economic growth.

Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.