Economy expected to post Q4 reboundn expected from B1Economy

Economic Outlook Q4 Rebound Expected, But Growth Remains Below Target

As dialect coaches, we often find ourselves at the intersection of language and economics. In this blog post, we'll delve into the latest market trends and forecasts to gain insights into the Philippine economy's performance in the last quarter of 2025.

Veracity Check Q3 Slump and Q4 Rebound

According to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), the Philippine economy experienced a significant slowdown in economic growth for the third quarter, with a rate of 4.0% compared to 5.5% in the previous quarter. However, their latest Market Call report suggests that this slump will be followed by a rebound in Q4, with expected growth rates reaching 4.6%.

Breaking Down the Trends Factors Driving Growth

So, what's driving this expected rebound? The UA&P highlights several key factors

1. Lower Inflation With inflation well below target, consumers are more likely to spend, boosting economic activity.
2. Increased OFW Remittances and Exports Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) continue to play a crucial role in the Philippine economy, with remittances and exports driving growth.
3. Lower Interest Rates The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) quarter-point policy rate cut has made local government securities more attractive to investors, encouraging investment and stimulating economic activity.
4. Government Spending Rebound A rebound in government spending is expected, driven by increased outlays on infrastructure and social services.

Employment Trends Holiday Season Boost Expected

The UA&P also reports a slight downtick in employment figures for October, with an unemployment rate of 95.0%. However, they expect this trend to reverse as the holiday season approaches, driven by increased consumer spending and hiring.

Peso Outlook Record Lows Ahead?

The UA&P forecasts that the peso could hit new record lows against the US dollar in the December-January period, with an exchange rate of P58.6-P59.6 per dollar. This is largely due to cautious sentiment following repeated growth forecast downgrades by multilateral lenders and think tanks.

Insights and Predictions A Closer Look

While Q4 growth is expected to rebound, it's clear that the Philippine economy still faces challenges in meeting its 5.5-6.5% target for 2025. As dialect coaches, we know that language plays a vital role in shaping economic outcomes. How can policymakers and businesses work together to stimulate growth and create a more favorable business environment?

Conclusion A Mixed Bag

In conclusion, the Philippine economy's Q4 rebound is expected, but growth remains below target. The UA&P highlights several factors driving this rebound, including lower inflation, increased OFW remittances and exports, lower interest rates, and government spending. Employment figures are expected to benefit from the holiday season boost, while the peso could hit new record lows.

Key Takeaways

1. Q4 growth is expected to rebound, driven by several key factors.
2. Despite this rebound, growth remains below target for 2025.
3. The peso could hit new record lows against the US dollar in December-January.
4. Employment figures are expected to benefit from the holiday season boost.

References

1. University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P). (2025). Market Call Report.
2. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). (2025). Monetary Policy Statement.

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Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.