Economic reasons for the political debacle

Title Economic Reasons Behind the Political Debacle Unpacking the Factors that Led to the Senatorial Candidates' Poor Performance

The recent senatorial elections in the Philippines saw the administration's candidates fare poorly. Many have attributed this to the continued popularity of former President Rodrigo Duterte. A Pulse Asia survey revealed that his approval rating remained high at 63%, while Vice President Sarah Duterte's trust rating stood at 50%. This column aims to explore the economic reasons behind the voting public's preference for senatorial candidates aligned with the former president.

One significant factor is the administration's inability to manage food prices effectively. The graph below illustrates the headline inflation rate under various administrations, revealing a substantial spike in both 2020 and 2024. The Duterte administration managed to keep food inflation under control, whereas the Marcos government has struggled to do so.

Another key issue is joblessness. Graph 2 shows SWS survey results from 1993-2024, highlighting the historic high joblessness figures in 2020 (due to the Covid-19 pandemic) and again in 2024. This has led to an increase in self-rated poverty, with approximately 55% of respondents categorizing themselves as poor.

The resulting double whammy of low income and high food prices has contributed to a record-high incidence of hunger (27%). This, in turn, has negative consequences for child nutrition, cognitive ability, and learning outcomes.

Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

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